Professor Godfred Alufar Bokpin, an economist, has predicted that Ghana’s economy will rise significantly in 2024 as a result of election-related activity.
Prof. Bokpin said that, as a result of the elections, there would be an increase in patronage of hospitality services, namely hotels and vehicle rentals, which would infuse more cash into the economy and provide some respite to Ghanaians.
He stated this in an exclusive interview with the Ghana News Agency about his thoughts on the fiscal year 2023 and the country’s economic prospects in the future year.
He emphasized the need of policies that promote higher productivity and stability.
“There’s some good news next year because it’s an election year; politicians are going to spend, including travels across all the regions, and that in itself, would inject some liquidity into the system,” he stated.
“This means that there are some related businesses that will also pick up next year – car rentals and the hotel industry, and some Ghanaians whose lifestyles are indexed to political activities, this will be their harvest season,” he noted.
He did, however, urge the government to put in place procedures to prevent inflation from escalating as a result of cash inflows into the system from political and election-related spending.
“That pickup can benefit some Ghanaians, but we should be mindful that the same situation could cause inflation to go up, because there may be a lot more liquidity injection without a corresponding increase in production,” Prof Bokpin said.
He predicted that by the second half of 2024, there may be fewer external capital streaming into the nation, putting pressure on the Cedi.
“The election fever begins from the second half of the year as experienced in all previous competitive elections, and many investors would not like to bring their funds into the country, but adopt the attitude of wait and see,” he said.
Prof Bokpin, as a result, recommended Ghanaians to drop their expectations of growth in 2024, which would immediately reflect in their lives.
“We should be moderate with our expectations because we’re not entirely out of the woods and there’s still some considerable price that we have to pay to sustain the recovery,” the Economist explained.
The Economist requested that the government expedite negotiations with its bilateral and commercial creditors for the second tranche of a US $600 million loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“We need to conclude doing so, in addition to the syndicated cocoa loan,” he said, stressing that, that would help tame uncertainty in the economy and save the Cedi from cumulative pressures with its foreign currencies, particularly, the Dollar, and sustain economic stability.